Brandon Valenzuela is an AL Gold Glove finalist in his breakout season, but the Blue Jays catcher faces long odds against Dillon Dingler.

The 26-year-old switch-hitter stepped in after Alejandro Kirk's thumb injury four games into the season. He made the most of it.

In 618.2 innings, he posted 9 Defensive Runs Saved and 13 Fielding Run Value. Both ranked second in the American League.

The arm is elite. His 8 Catcher Caught Stealing Above Average tied Joe Mack for the most in baseball.

He also threw out 19 of 63 would-be base stealers.

The framing stood out, too. His 8 Catcher Framing Runs ranked second in MLB, one ahead of Kirk.

Dillon Dingler's 16 Fielding Run Value makes him the favourite

Blocking is the weak spot. Valenzuela finished at -3 Blocks Above Average, tied for 46th, and allowed 31 wild pitches.

Kirk, by comparison, led the majors with 15 Blocks Above Average. It's a skill Valenzuela can improve, and Kirk himself wasn't known for it as a prospect.

The competition is stiff. Austin Wells of the Yankees posted 8 DRS over 959.1 innings, though his arm graded below average.

Dingler is the real problem. The reigning winner led the AL with 15 DRS over 995.2 innings while ranking near the top in blocking, framing and throwing.

Innings matter in this vote. Dingler caught nearly 400 more than the Jays rookie, whose total ranked just 27th in MLB.

Is this another Blue Jays snub waiting to happen? Not this time.

Kirk had a real case last year and lost to Dingler, which still stings in Toronto. This year, Dingler simply earned it.

Valenzuela is the rookie who wins the sprint but hasn't run the marathon yet. Next year, with more innings, the stopwatch could tell a different story.

The bigger takeaway is depth. Kirk, Valenzuela and Tyler Heineman all finished top five among catchers in DRS and FRV, a rare luxury behind the plate.

He probably doesn't win this one. But if Valenzuela keeps shutting down the running game at this rate, John Schneider will have to find him more innings, and the hardware might follow.