The Blue Jays have until Nov. 17 to decide whether Nolan Perry and their other Rule 5-eligible prospects get 40-man spots, and a looming lockout complicates everything.

The CBA expires Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET. If no new deal is in place, a lockout would freeze transactions and baseball activities across the league.

That puts the Rule 5 Draft in limbo. It would go ahead as normal without a lockout, but a work stoppage would likely wipe it out entirely.

The 2021 version was cancelled for exactly that reason.

Toronto's list of eligible names is long. Perry, Gage Stanifer, Daniel Guerra, Jay Harry and Josh Kasevich are among the prospects who need protection.

Protecting all of them would eat up a lot of 40-man spots. Gambling on a lockout would keep those spots open for other moves.

Ross Atkins faces a costly guess before Nov. 17

So does Toronto play it straight or play the odds? If the Jays leave prospects unprotected and the draft happens anyway, they risk losing them for almost nothing.

Play it straight. Perry was just named one of the organization's Prospects of the Year, and betting his future on a labour prediction would be reckless.

It's like skipping home insurance because the forecast says no storms this year. The savings feel smart right up until the roof leaks.

The rest of the calendar matters, too. Qualifying offers come in November, though Sportsnet reports Toronto isn't expected to make any.

That means George Springer, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer should all reach free agency without those strings attached.

The Jays also have eight arbitration-eligible players to sort through: Davis Schneider, Louis Varland, Nathan Lukes, Spencer Arrighetti, Bowden Francis, Josh Smith, Ernie Clement and José Soriano.

The Winter Meetings and the draft lottery usually land in the first half of December. Both could be cancelled in a lockout, which pushes the big moves into November.

November is shaping up as the most important month of Atkins' winter. Get the Rule 5 call wrong, and the Jays could lose a future piece before they even start shopping.