John Schneider is facing real scrutiny after a 79-83 season that landed the Blue Jays in last place. Now the question is, will John Schneider be fired this winter?

The fall was steep. A year after reaching Game 7 of the World Series, Toronto finished at the bottom of the AL East and missed the playoffs entirely.

The offence collapsed on his watch. The Jays ranked last in the majors in runs and home runs.

The bullpen usage raised eyebrows, too. Mason Fluharty carried one of the heaviest relief loads in baseball, and Schneider rode his relievers like a team chasing October.

And the managerial market is unusually interesting. Rob Thomson is available after the Phillies fired him in April, and Dan Wilson is out in Seattle.

Alex Cora is also unattached, though he turned down the Phillies twice and reportedly plans to take 2027 off.

Injuries make firing John Schneider a tough case to sell

So is Schneider actually to blame? Much less than the record suggests.

The injury toll was brutal. The Jays had more than 30 IL stints and over 2,000 days missed, according to Blue Jays Nation.

Anthony Santander never played, Addison Barger got into nine games, and Alejandro Kirk missed two months. José Berrios and Cody Ponce combined for 2.1 innings.

Ross Atkins has also taken the blame publicly, saying he was disappointed in himself. That's the front office admitting the roster failed, not just the dugout.

Firing Schneider would be scapegoating. A manager who took this core to Game 7 doesn't forget how to manage in 12 months, and a new voice wouldn't fix a lineup with no power.

Firing the manager here is like blaming the pilot for a plane that took off with half its engines missing.

That doesn't mean he gets a free pass. His staff stays intact, with DeMarlo Hale remaining after the Phillies kept Don Mattingly, and continuity comes with expectations.

The leash should be shorter in 2027. If the Jays add the bats and arms they need and still stumble out of the gate, the conversation changes quickly.

For now, the smart move is keeping Schneider. But if Atkins spends big this winter, the next slow start will land squarely on the manager's desk.