Shane Bieber is projected to land a one-year, $13.1 million deal in free agency. For the Blue Jays, that price makes a reunion hard to pass up.

The projection comes from Spotrac. Another club could go further, potentially offering a two-year deal with a club option for 2028 if 2027 goes well.

Bieber has said he wants to return to Toronto. Ross Atkins has only said the club will work through a process with him.

His 2026 was a mixed bag. He went 5-2 with a 4.37 ERA across 11 appearances.

Injuries framed the year. Forearm fatigue kept him out until June 23, and shoulder inflammation ended his season at the end of August.

But the finish was encouraging. He posted a 2.59 ERA over his final four starts before the shoulder flared up.

Shane Bieber's price fits a Blue Jays budget with room to spare

The money is there. Toronto has about $195 million committed for 2027, and Mark Shapiro expects payroll to land in a similar area to 2026.

The rotation need is obvious. Behind Dylan Cease and Trey Yesavage, José Berrios and Bowden Francis are rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and Cody Ponce is coming back from knee surgery.

Is the injury risk too high? It's real, but a one-year deal caps the downside.

Sign him. A former Cy Young winner at that price is the cheapest upside on the market, and a short deal fits a pitcher limited to 96 innings since last year's trade deadline.

It's like renting a sports car for the summer instead of buying it. If it breaks down, you hand back the keys.

The competition is real. Sports Illustrated has predicted the Red Sox will finally land him after chasing him in each of the last two offseasons.

Bleacher Report, meanwhile, predicted Toronto would let him walk in search of more stability.

The Jays have the money and the need. If he ends up in Boston at a price this reasonable, it'll be a self-inflicted wound watched from across the division.