Shane Bieber's Blue Jays gamble paid off in 2025. Betting on him again in 2027 is a different story.

GM Ross Atkins acquired him from Cleveland while he was still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, hoping he'd be healthy for the stretch run. He was.

The real question at the time was whether Bieber would exercise his $16 million player option for 2026. It seemed unlikely given his performance, but he surprised everyone and opted in shortly after the World Series.

The reasoning behind that decision became clear fast. Bieber opened this season on the IL, and a week-to-week diagnosis stretched into a multi-month absence.

When he finally returned, it took weeks to find his 2025 form again, and then he got hurt once more right as he hit his stride.

Why the injury pattern outweighs the flashes of brilliance

There were real signs of what Toronto hoped for. His best start in a Blue Jays uniform came Aug. 20, seven shutout innings against the Rays with seven strikeouts and just three hits allowed.

The outing before that held the Yankees to one run over six innings.

Then he landed back on the IL after that Rays masterpiece and never pitched again this season, further proof his body can't handle a full 162-game schedule anymore.

Since the start of 2023, Bieber has thrown 236 regular-season innings total, roughly 20 fewer than what Sandy Alcantara has thrown this year alone. That's the clearest illustration of his inability to take the ball every fifth day.

A team with genuine rotation depth could reasonably take a flyer on him this offseason. Toronto doesn't fit that description right now.

The Blue Jays currently have only Dylan Cease, Jose Soriano, and Trey Yesavage as trustworthy arms projected for 2027. Cody Ponce is coming off a season-ending leg injury, and Jose Berrios is rehabbing from his own Tommy John surgery after years of decline.

This group badly needs a proven innings eater, not another health question mark.

The encouraging part is Atkins has a real track record signing proven starters in free agency, including Cease, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt in years past.

A reunion with Gausman would make plenty of sense as a fourth arm behind the top three. His current Cubs teammate Shota Imanaga could also be a strong fit as a much-needed left-hander.

It's not the deepest free agent class available, but Toronto will have real options if it's willing to spend. The one thing that money shouldn't go toward is Bieber. His health is a risk the Blue Jays simply can't afford again in 2027.