Spencer Arrighetti couldn't stick as a starter in 2026. Now the Blue Jays have to figure out what broke in his fastballs before handing him another shot.

The season had plenty of moving parts. He opened it with the Astros, landed in Toronto at the trade deadline and spent time on the IL along the way.

The strikeouts slipped and the walks kept showing up. Neither one is what sank him.

Home runs did. He allowed 18 of them, and 15 came off his fastballs.

The damage under the hood is just as ugly. Opponents posted a .308 xBA and a .609 xSLG against the heaters.

He did generate a 15.7% whiff rate on those pitches. Against contact that loud, it wasn't close to enough.

A collapsing cutter puts his rotation future in doubt

Within his three-fastball mix, the cutter fell hardest. Opponents' contact rate against it jumped from 71.8% in 2025 to 87.5% in 2026.

The cutter and sinker both carried a 25.0 HR/FB% rate. A loss of horizontal movement on the cutter is one theory for the slide.

So where did the damage actually come from? Most of the homers landed in the middle of the zone, with the heaviest cluster in the upper third.

That reads like command. Pitches meant for the edges kept drifting over the plate, right where hitters were waiting.

Here's the strange part. Arrighetti finished in the 93rd percentile in Hard-Hit% and the 88th in average exit velocity.

He's the homeowner with great locks who keeps leaving the back door open. Most of the house is secure, but a burglar only needs one way in.

His 13.1 HR/FB% also sat right around his career mark of 13.2%. Fly balls have been part of the package since his 2024 debut in Houston.

Toronto shouldn't pencil him into the rotation on hope. Until the command over the heart of the plate gets fixed, he belongs in the bullpen, where shorter outings limit the exposure.

The Blue Jays clearly want him starting. Whether those fastballs find the edges again is something nobody in that building will know until camp opens.