Alejandro Kirk 's return seem to be set and now the Blue Jays have a major roster decision to make.
Kirk has been tracking toward a return for the Yankees series, with Friday described as the best-case scenario after his rehab assignment began on June 3. Toronto has been waiting more than 2 months to get its starting catcher back from thumb surgery.
That should be easy good news. It is not, because Kirk's return forces the Blue Jays to choose between Tyler Heineman's roster flexibility problem and Brandon Valenzuela's performance.
Heineman is the vulnerable name on paper. FanGraphs lists him with 0 options remaining, which means Toronto cannot quietly send him down and sort it out later. If the Blue Jays want him off the active roster, a DFA is the clean route.
Valenzuela gives them the easier paperwork path. He still has 3 options, so the Blue Jays could send him to Triple-A and keep all 3 catchers in the organization.
But that would ignore what has actually happened on the field. Valenzuela has hit .252 with 7 home runs and 18 RBIs in 46 games, while Heineman is sitting at .154 with 1 home run and a .410 OPS in 78 at-bats.
Toronto has already seen the difference with its own eyes. MLB.com wrote this week that Valenzuela looks ready to be Kirk's tandem mate, and that came after his walk-off single against Philadelphia pushed his case even louder.
Valenzuela has earned more than a convenient demotion
This is why the decision feels bigger than backup catcher math. Optioning Valenzuela would protect depth, but it would also tell the clubhouse that better play does not always win the job.
And Valenzuela's case is not built on luck alone. Statcast shows a .347 wOBA and a .349 xwOBA, which says the quality of his contact has backed up the production.
Heineman's problem is that the bat has gone cold for too long. Over his last 15 games, he is hitting .103 with a .167 on-base percentage, and that is not enough to justify keeping the roster spot over a younger catcher who has actually helped win games.
Kirk's return still matters most, because he is the starter and one of Schneider's steadiest players behind the plate. The Blue Jays missed his game-calling, his calm, and the balance his bat can bring once he is back in rhythm.
But Kirk coming back does not erase the second question. Toronto can choose the safe roster path or the better baseball path, and right now those are not the same thing.
If the Blue Jays reward what has happened on the field, Valenzuela stays and Heineman is the one in danger. Anything else may keep the depth chart tidy, but it would be a hard sell after the way Brandon Valenzuela has played.
Should the Blue Jays keep Brandon Valenzuela over Tyler Heineman when Alejandro Kirk returns?
Also read on Blue Jays Insider :
The Blue Jays just made a decision on Alejandro Kirk - and it tells you a lot about where this team is headed
