ESPN's Kiley McDaniel projects Nick Pivetta to land a three-year, $45 million deal this winter. The Victoria, B.C., native fits Toronto's rotation.

That projection beats the $14 million club option the Padres declined for 2027.

Pivetta's 2026 was short but sharp. After four starts, a right elbow flexor strain sent him to the IL in April.

He suffered another apparent injury during an August rehab outing, but returned for four starts in September and two in the postseason.

Across his eight regular-season starts, he posted a 2.21 FIP. His strikeout rate climbed to 30%.

What does the projection say about 2027? Something more modest.

Nick Pivetta's AL East experience adds to his Blue Jays appeal

FanGraphs' Steamer projects a 4.06 ERA across 108 innings next season. That reflects the injury risk more than the stuff.

His 2025 showed the ceiling. He finished sixth in NL Cy Young voting after logging 181.2 innings.

He also knows the division. Pivetta spent parts of five seasons with the Red Sox before heading to San Diego.

Toronto learned the hard way how fragile a rotation can be. The Jays entered 2026 with eight starters signed, yet José Berrios, Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage all opened the year on the IL.

Three years and $45 million is a fair price for this kind of upside. The elbow is the risk, but a healthy Pivetta would slot in as Toronto's No. 2 or 3 starter right away.

He's like a high-end appliance with a recall notice that's already been fixed. The quality is there, as long as the repair holds.

He'd join a rotation led by Dylan Cease, Yesavage and José Soriano. That group would look far more stable with him in it.

The Padres could still try to keep him. If Ross Atkins wants to bring a Canadian arm home, he'll need to move before San Diego makes its own pitch.