Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still central to John Schneider's lineup, but the Blue Jays' franchise bat is wearing an ugly label right now.
A recent outside take tagged Guerrero as Toronto's least valuable player so far, and the reason is easy to spot. The power has not shown up often enough for a player carrying a $500 million contract.
That number matters because Guerrero's extension works out to about $35.71 million per season. When that kind of player has only 3 home runs into late May, the noise is coming.
The hard part is that Guerrero has not been bad across the board. Statcast shows him hitting .293, which is still one of the steadier averages in the lineup.
He is also getting on base at a .392 clip, so this is not a story about a hitter who has completely lost the strike zone or disappeared at the plate.
But the slugging number tells the real story. Guerrero is sitting at .377, far below the damage Toronto expects from its first baseman.
That is why the label sticks. A corner infielder on that contract is not paid to be merely solid. He is paid to change games with one swing, and 3 home runs in 227 plate appearances is not enough.
"[Vladimir] Guerrero is the guy on the Blue Jays with the 112 OPS+, so perhaps this slide has officially gone off the rails," Rymer wrote. "But $500 million should buy a consistent lineup rock, and Guerrero is doing that thing where he just vanishes for long stretches. Above all, it's inexcusable that he's slugging just .372 with three homers."
Why Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still feels like the key
There is still a case for patience. Guerrero's expected numbers are healthier than the surface line, with a .364 xwOBA and a .425 expected slugging mark.
That suggests the whole profile is not broken. He is still hitting the ball at 90.4 mph on average, and his bat speed remains in the 94th percentile.
So this is less about collapse and more about missing lift. His barrel rate is 7.1%, which helps explain why the average is there but the home-run total is not.
Toronto can live with a star running a little cold for a couple of weeks. What it cannot live with is its biggest hitter still sitting on 3 home runs while the club is 27-29 and chasing ground in the AL East.
That is why this tag lands harder than normal media talk. Guerrero is still a good hitter, but good is not the bar when the contract, role, and lineup pressure all point to one player.
John Schneider still needs Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to be the hitter opponents fear, not just the one who gets on base. Until the power wakes up, the Blue Jays' biggest star will keep wearing a label nobody in Toronto wants attached to him.
Is the criticism of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fair while his power is this quiet?
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