Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is giving John Schneider base traffic, not damage, and that gap is hurting Toronto more than it first looks.
At first glance, Guerrero's line can still fool you. He is batting .292 with a .383 on-base percentage, numbers that look steady enough for a middle-order bat.
The problem is everything behind that surface. Sporting News pointed out that Guerrero's isolated power sits at .090, the worst mark among Toronto's qualified hitters.
That is what makes this season hit harder than the usual slump story. Guerrero is getting outslugged in raw impact by Myles Straw, Andrés Giménez and Ernie Clement, which should never happen on a Blue Jays lineup card.
The pressure is heavier because this is the first season of the 14-year, $500,000,000 extension Toronto gave the face of the franchise. That kind of deal is supposed to buy middle-order damage, not just respectable at-bats.
Toronto is also not sitting in a comfortable spot where it can wait this out quietly. The Blue Jays opened Sunday at 31-34 and 8.0 games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East.
The lineup as a whole has felt that drag. Toronto ranks 20th in MLB with a .698 team OPS, which is nowhere near what this club expected from an offense built around Guerrero.
Toronto needs thunder from its biggest bat
The most jarring number is still the homer total. Guerrero has only 3 home runs through 63 games, a brutal pace for a first baseman who is supposed to tilt innings with one swing.
There is still some discipline in the profile. He has drawn 32 walks against 26 strikeouts, so this is not a hitter flailing at everything and drowning in bad swing decisions.
But that almost makes the whole thing look stranger. A patient hitter with Guerrero's track record should not be carrying a .381 slugging percentage into June.
Toronto knows how much this changes if he gets hot. MLB.com wrote last week that when Vladdy heats up, so will the Blue Jays, a fair read for a club still trying to recapture the offense that got it to Game 7 of the World Series last season.
That is why the Sporting News angle lands so cleanly. The batting average hides the real problem, because this is not only about getting on base. It is about how little extra-base damage Guerrero is doing when Toronto needs him to carry the middle.
For the Blue Jays, this has moved past a cold stretch. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still reaching base, but until the power shows up, Toronto is playing without the version of its biggest star that this lineup was built around.
Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s lack of power Toronto's biggest problem right now?
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