The Blue Jays have a 1.04% shot at the first overall pick in the 2027 MLB Draft. For a team that played Game 7 of the World Series a year ago, that stings.

With the season now in the books, the odds reflect a 79-83 finish. Toronto also carries a 10.3% chance of landing somewhere in the top six.

Those numbers come with a qualifier, at least for now. A new collective bargaining agreement still has to be hammered out this winter, and plenty can shift before the lottery.

Toronto finished last in the AL East. The offence was the biggest culprit, ranking last in the majors in runs scored.

Injuries piled on. Anthony Santander missed the entire season, and Addison Barger played only nine games.

So is a long-shot lottery ticket any consolation? Not really, because odds like that are a scratch card at the corner store.

A $315 million payroll lands Toronto in the lottery

Here's the part that should bother everyone in the building. Toronto spent $315 million in 2026, according to FanGraphs' Roster Resource, and still ended up in the same conversation as rebuilding clubs.

That's a damning result. A payroll that size should never come within shouting distance of draft-lottery math, injuries or not.

Draft picks take time, too. Even a top-six selection would be years away from helping the big-league roster, and the clock on this core is already ticking loudly.

The pipeline is getting creative anyway. Toronto reportedly agreed to a record deal with 15-year-old Angel Montas, though he can't formally sign until 2028.

Mark Shapiro has already said he expects next year's payroll to land in a similar area. That money, not a lottery ball, decides how fast this team climbs back.

Ross Atkins knows where the dollars need to go. "We never put the ball in the seats," the GM said of the 2026 lineup.

If the ping-pong balls bounce Toronto's way, it makes for a fun story on draft night. If the offseason goes sideways, the Jays could be staring at better lottery odds this time next year.