Louis Varland might have been the best reliever in baseball this season. That's exactly why the Blue Jays should trade him this winter.

Start with the regression risk. His 1.27 ERA sat more than a run below his 2.37 xERA, and a repeat of that surface number isn't happening.

The underlying profile is still elite. He landed in the 96th percentile in strikeout rate and allowed barrels on just 3.7% of batted balls.

And the contract makes him even more attractive. As a Super Two, he's arbitration-eligible this winter with four years of arbitration left before free agency in 2030.

MLB Trade Rumors projects his 2027 salary around $4 million. That's a bargain, and it widens the list of clubs that could afford him.

The closest recent comparable is San Diego's 2025 deal for Mason Miller. The Padres sent Leo De Vries, MLB Pipeline's No. 3 overall prospect, to the Athletics.

Spencer Miles could be Toronto's next closer out of nowhere

Toronto needs bats and starters far more than a ninth-inning ace. Kazuma Okamoto was the only Jay to hit more than 15 home runs.

The rotation is thinner than it looks. Dylan Cease finished the season on the IL with shoulder inflammation, and his offseason plans include a meditation and yoga trip to an Indian ashram.

Cease posted 5.5 fWAR this season. Varland checked in at 3.1.

That gap is the whole argument in miniature. Top-10 relievers average 2.62 fWAR, while top-10 starters average 5.58.

Closers can also vanish fast. Relievers who saved 30-plus games in 2025 saw their combined save total drop 43% in 2026.

Toronto knows it firsthand. Jordan Romano was a two-time All-Star with 36 saves in 2023, then posted ERAs of 8.23 and 5.61 over the last two seasons.

Closers come out of nowhere, too. Bryan Baker, Riley O'Brien, Jacob Latz and Varland himself combined for 154 saves in 2026 after entering the year with 11 total.

The heir may already be in the building. Miles was a Rule 5 pick with just 14.2 career minor league innings, none above A-ball, before his breakthrough.

Fans will point to Game 7 of the 2025 World Series. But the Dodgers closed that postseason with Roki Sasaki, a shaky starter who posted a 0.71 ERA once he moved to the ninth.

So is moving a reliever coming off the best ERA in franchise history a gamble? Absolutely, but a club that finished last in the AL East in two of the past three seasons can't afford sentiment.

It's selling your house at the top of a hot market. You'll miss the place, but you'd regret holding on once prices turn.

He won't come cheap, and Toronto shouldn't let him go cheap. The question is whether Ross Atkins has the stomach to move the most reliable arm on the roster.