Jeff Hoffman is back in the spotlight, but the Blue Jays reliever looks more snakebit than broken right now.
That is the tension around him. Fans saw another late collapse in Baltimore and went straight back to the same place: why is Hoffman still getting these spots?
It is an easy reaction after what happened Saturday. Hoffman entered with a 5-1 lead in the ninth, struck out the first hitter, then watched the inning spin into a hit batter, a triple, a single, a double, and two walks before Toronto lost 6-5.
That outing reopened everything from April, when the Blue Jays pulled him out of the closer role and shifted to more of a committee look. For a while, it felt like he had steadied himself again.
He had earned that second chance, too. Hoffman picked up saves against the Yankees on May 21 and the Pirates on May 23, which made it look like the worst stretch might finally be behind him.
Then came the harder truth inside the easier outrage: the numbers under the hood still say Hoffman is pitching better than his reputation.
Why Jeff Hoffman's season looks so strange
The loudest stat is the one that almost should not exist. Hoffman owns a .516 BABIP, which Blue Jays Nation noted is the highest among MLB relievers, even though he is a strikeout reliever and not a soft-contact innings eater.
That part matters because his swing-and-miss profile is still elite. Statcast has him in the 99th percentile in chase rate, 100th percentile in whiff rate, and 99th percentile in strikeout rate.
His actual results and expected results are also miles apart. Blue Jays Nation pegged Hoffman's ERA at 6.16 against a 3.15 expected ERA, while Statcast currently shows a 2.68 xERA and strong contact suppression marks.
That is why this season feels so maddening. The things that usually bury a reliever, walks and home runs, are not the main problem the way they were before. The ball just keeps finding grass at the worst possible moments.
It does not mean fans are wrong to be furious. Relief pitchers get judged by timing, and Hoffman's meltdowns have come in the exact innings that leave scorch marks on a game.
But this still looks like a terrible time to sell low on him. Jeff Hoffman is getting too many whiffs, too many chase swings, and too many ugly bounces for Toronto to act like there is nothing useful left here.
The bigger challenge for Schneider is usage. Until those balls in play start dying in gloves again, the Blue Jays may need to keep Hoffman away from the innings where one weird bounce turns into a fire.
Should the Blue Jays keep trusting Jeff Hoffman in late innings?
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