Toronto Blue Jays projected offer for Kyle Tucker now sits at $52 million per season

ESPN analyst Paul Hembekides has floated the idea that Tucker's market could tilt toward fewer years and a bigger average annual value. If that happens, almost every big-market club has a clean reason to engage.

The frameworks being discussed are massive even by superstar standards, with a 1+1 structure at $52 million per year or a 2+2 structure at $43 million per year. Those shapes land at $104 million over two seasons or $172 million over four seasons.

The Blue Jays have also been linked to Tucker as he only team that would be willing to make him a long term offer but at the same time a shorter term would benefit them as well, along with every other team interested in him.

Around the league, this kind of proposal reads like a stress test for which front offices truly want the bat. It also turns the bidding into a pure AAV battle, not a decade-long marriage.

Tucker is entering his age-29 season after a 2025 line of .266/.377/.464 with 22 homers, 25 steals, and 4.5 fWAR in 136 games for the Chicago Cubs. His second-half dip lined up with a hand injury and later a calf strain.

For Toronto, the appeal is how a shorter deal can sit on top of an expensive roster without chaining the books into the late 2030s. RosterResource estimates the Blue Jays at about $272 million in 2026 payroll, but both George Springer and Kevin Gausman come off after 2026.

That matters because Springer's 2026 payroll figure sits around $24.2 million and Gausman is at $23 million, meaning roughly $47 million can clear in one winter. José Berrios also has an opt-out after 2026, which adds another moving piece.

A Tucker AAV north of $40 million would also land well above the 2026 competitive balance tax threshold of $244 million, so tax costs become part of the true price. Toronto has already shown comfort living in that neighborhood, but a $52 million AAV would be historic for a position player.

The other pivot is Bo Bichette, since a falling Tucker market could leave more room to pursue a second marquee deal. The next milestone is simple, whether Toronto can turn financial flexibility into two impact bats before camp opens.

Source: Jays Journal