Kevin Gausman gives John Schneider the ball first, and the Blue Jays' Atlanta pitching plan already looks like a real test.
Toronto opens Tuesday at Truist Park with Gausman against Bryce Elder. MLB's probable page lists Gausman at 4-3 with a 3.13 ERA and 66 strikeouts, while Elder is 4-3 with a 2.50 ERA and 61 strikeouts.
Wednesday sets up Patrick Corbin against Grant Holmes. Corbin comes in at 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA and 36 strikeouts, while Holmes is 3-2 with a 3.95 ERA and 53 strikeouts.
Thursday is where the series starts bending. Toronto still has a TBA listed against Chris Sale, and Sale is carrying an 8-3 record, a 2.01 ERA, and 80 strikeouts into that matchup.
That shape tells the story right away. John Schneider gets 2 veteran starts to open the set, then has to figure out how to survive the Sale game on the back end.
It also says something about where the Blue Jays still are on the mound. The first 2 games look clean on paper. The third still looks like a patch job waiting for a name.
The records add a little more heat to it. Toronto enters the series at 29-31, while Atlanta sits at 40-20, so the Blue Jays are not walking into a soft spot on the schedule.
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Why this Blue Jays order matters
Gausman's opener is the key to the whole set. If Toronto can get a steady start in Game 1, the pressure on the rest of the series drops right away.
That is why Elder makes Tuesday tricky. His numbers say he has been better than the name value might suggest, and the Blue Jays cannot afford to give away early innings trying to figure him out.
Corbin's game feels just as important for a different reason. Wednesday is the matchup that could decide whether Toronto is chasing a split or playing for a series win before Sale ever gets the ball.
Then comes Thursday, and that is the stress point. Sale is still the toughest arm in the set by a mile, and Toronto has not yet posted its answer on the other side.
That is why this rotation setup matters more than a normal probable list. The Blue Jays have a chance to lean on Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin early, because once Chris Sale shows up opposite a TBA, the series can get away fast.
Will the Blue Jays get enough from this rotation to win the Braves series?
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