The Toronto Blue Jays' playoff odds have crashed to 3.5 percent with just six games left.

That's a stunning drop from 35% just two weeks ago, according to FanGraphs.

Toronto dropped two of three to the Rangers over the weekend, sitting three games back of the final AL wild-card spot, effectively four given Chicago holds the tiebreaker.

The Blue Jays have gone 5-7 over this exact stretch, losing several games directly against teams fighting for the same spot.

Even at these odds, the door isn't fully shut. If Toronto wins all six remaining games, finishing 83-79, FanGraphs gives the club a 57% chance of securing the final spot.

But Toronto needs real help too. Either the White Sox or Guardians need to win fewer than two of their remaining six games. If either wins more than two, the Blue Jays are eliminated.

Why Chicago's schedule makes this even harder

Chicago's remaining opponents are two of baseball's worst teams, the Royals and the Rockies, making a White Sox collapse a genuine long shot.

Toronto heads to Baltimore for three games before closing the season at home against Cincinnati this weekend.

The offense has been the real problem all season. Toronto ranks second-to-last in MLB in both runs scored and home runs, a stunning fall after finishing among the league's best offensive teams just last year.

That gap between last year's World Series run and this season's offensive collapse has defined the entire year for a fan base that expected far more after October's magic.

For Toronto to defend its AL title, the Blue Jays need to run the table over these final six games and get significant help elsewhere in the standings.

The math is brutal, and the path is narrow. But with six games still to play, Toronto's season isn't technically over yet.