Bleacher Report predicts the Blue Jays will let Shane Bieber walk in free agency. The final month of his season argues otherwise.

Joel Reuter's reasoning centers on stability. The Jays "might be hunting for more stability as they rebuild their staff" this winter, he wrote.

The health file backs up the worry. Forearm fatigue kept Bieber out until June 23, and shoulder inflammation ended his season at the end of August.

He made just 11 starts in between. Since last year's trade deadline, injuries have limited him to 96 innings in a Toronto uniform.

But look at how it ended. Over his final four starts before the shoulder flared up, he posted a 2.59 ERA across 24.1 innings.

Pitchers who've lost it don't string together four starts like that. The real problem has been the interruptions.

Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage and José Soriano are the only rotation locks

Past that top three, Toronto's 2027 rotation is a question mark. Nobody knows yet what José Berrios or Cody Ponce will give coming back from their injuries.

Max Scherzer hits free agency alongside the right-hander. That's two veteran arms potentially walking out the door at once.

Reuter called Bieber, at 31, "a quality buy-low target." So why would the team that knows him best be the one to pass?

Letting him go would be a mistake. A short, incentive-heavy deal caps the risk, and Toronto's staff already has a closer look at that arm than any other club.

It's like selling your car right after the mechanic finally fixed the rattle. The next owner gets the smooth ride.

There's a division-rival angle, too. Sports Illustrated's Patrick McAvoy has already predicted Boston will sign him after the Red Sox chased him in each of the last two offseasons.

His Cy Young came in the short 2020 season with Cleveland. Nobody is paying for that pitcher anymore.

The alternative is a more dependable middle-of-the-rotation arm. Fine in theory, but dependable arms cost real money, and Toronto won't be the only club shopping.

If Bieber lands at Fenway and stays healthy, this prediction ages badly in a hurry. If the arm breaks down again, the Jays will look awfully smart for walking away.