Shane Bieber wants to return to the Blue Jays, but his underlying numbers make the decision harder than it looks. Toronto's rotation still needs him.

Bieber has shown an openness to coming back. He's previously said the team's never-say-die attitude is “why I love to be a Blue Jay.”

The good stretch was real. Before a shoulder injury cut his 2026 short, he posted a 2.84 ERA over seven starts, with his elite command seemingly returning.

The other four starts were rough. That left him with a 4.37 ERA on the season, and the underlying numbers looked even worse.

Durability is the bigger worry. He's thrown just 114.2 innings over the past two seasons, postseason included.

His home run rate has also been a problem. He's allowed 1.65 homers per nine over that span, a sign that every mistake is getting punished.

Shane Bieber's best-case version still fits the back of Toronto's rotation

So is he worth bringing back? As a fourth or fifth starter, yes.

Toronto has Dylan Cease, José Soriano and Trey Yesavage locked in, with Cody Ponce as a cautiously optimistic fourth option. Beyond that, the depth is thin.

At 31, Bieber should have plenty of innings left. As he moves further from Tommy John surgery, his corner-painting command could return for good.

His two-year ERA of 4.01 is respectable for a back-end arm. The upside, if healthy, is much higher.

Bring him back on a one-year deal. He's not the certainty Toronto craves, but he's a former Cy Young winner who wants to be here, and that's worth a modest bet.

Bieber is like a vintage watch that keeps perfect time for weeks, then needs a repair. You don't rely on it alone, but you'd hate to sell it.

If the Jays want certainty, they'll look elsewhere first. Michael King and Nick Pivetta are among the names linked to Toronto.

He doesn't have to be the answer, just part of it. If Ross Atkins lands a front-line arm first, a reunion makes even more sense.