MLB.com's Keegan Matheson says the Blue Jays belong in the Tarik Skubal race, regardless of price. He also offered a caveat that might be the smarter path.

“The Blue Jays belong in the conversation for every top-end free agent, regardless of price,” Matheson wrote. “This offseason, that list begins with Tarik Skubal.”

He pointed to Toronto's spending history. Beyond Dylan Cease's $210 million deal and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s $500 million extension, the Jays went deep on Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto in recent winters.

Skubal's case is obvious. He'll be 30 next season, owns two Cy Young Awards and his ERA has started with a two in each of the past four seasons.

MLB.com's Mark Feinsand also linked Toronto to Skubal in October, noting the club's track record in high-profile pursuits.

But will the Jays actually outbid everyone? Matheson isn't so sure.

Keegan Matheson hints a mid-range starter is the smarter play

He named the Dodgers and Mets as major threats. “Will the Blue Jays outbid the Dodgers and Mets here?” Matheson asked.

Then came the key line. “A mid-range starter with more significant offensive upgrades could be the more valuable play,” he wrote.

That's the right answer. Toronto finished last in runs and home runs, and spending ace money on another arm wouldn't fix that.

Kevin Pillar made the same argument recently, saying the Jays “need to distribute that money over position groups.”

Check in on Skubal, sure, but don't chase him. Michael King or Nick Pivetta plus Seiya Suzuki would do far more for this roster than one superstar pitcher.

Buying Skubal right now would be like installing a gold-plated front door on a house with no roof. Impressive from the street, but it's still raining inside.

The Dodgers traded for him at the deadline and fell in the NLCS. Their interest in keeping him could push the price into record territory.

Ross Atkins should absolutely be at the table. He just needs to know when to get up and walk away.