The Blue Jays could be officially eliminated from the playoffs tonight, depending on three results.

Toronto opened the final week Monday in Baltimore, allowing two eighth-inning runs in a 4-3 loss that made an already difficult path even harder.

That sting cuts deep given where this team was a year ago, extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series, a foot away on two different occasions from winning it all.

Now, in late September, the Blue Jays are staring at the possibility of missing October entirely.

Through Sunday's action, Toronto sits at 77-80. The only realistic path runs through the third and final AL wild-card spot, currently held by the White Sox at 80-76.

The Astros sit between the two clubs at 77-79. Chicago and Houston both have six games left, while Toronto has just five remaining.

Toronto trails the White Sox by 3.5 games with five to play. Close to over, but not quite yet.

Why tonight could officially end the season

Elimination happens tonight with a specific combination: the Orioles beating Toronto, the White Sox beating the Royals, and the Guardians beating the Red Sox.

If all three happen, Toronto has no remaining path to catch either Chicago or Cleveland, and the season ends right there.

One detail matters here. Toronto holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland, so a tied finish would favor the Blue Jays there. Toronto does not hold the tiebreaker over the White Sox, though.

The path that stays alive requires winning out. Five straight wins gets Toronto to 82-80.

From there, Chicago needs to go 1-5 to finish 81-81, or Cleveland needs to fall to 0-6 or 1-5 and land behind the White Sox in the AL Central at 82-80 or 81-81.

Even with those AL Central dominoes falling the right way, Toronto still needs to leapfrog either the Astros at 77-79 or the Rangers at 78-78 in the season's final week, since one of those two clubs wins the AL West outright and the other stays in this same wild-card mix.

It's an extraordinarily narrow path. But with the season still going, the Blue Jays are still, barely, breathing.