Shane Bieber's injury-plagued season could push him toward free agency this winter.

He hasn't had the year many fans hoped for, spending more time on the injured list than on the mound.

Bieber missed the first two months with an elbow ailment before landing back on the IL following his Aug. 20 start, this time with right teres major inflammation. He hasn't pitched for Toronto since.

Across just 11 starts this season, he's gone 5-2 with a 4.37 ERA, a genuinely useful line whenever he's actually been available, but a small sample given everything he's missed.

That gap between quality and quantity is exactly what makes his offseason decision so complicated for both sides.

Why free agency could make more sense than staying

Toronto's own spending questions loom large heading into the winter, with an expired collective bargaining agreement adding real uncertainty to the whole offseason.

A potentially crowded rotation for 2027 complicates things further. With arms like Dylan Cease, Jose Soriano, and Trey Yesavage penciled in, along with the uncertain returns of pitchers like Cody Ponce, Bieber's path back to a clear rotation spot in Toronto isn't guaranteed.

Given all of that, testing the open market might genuinely hold more value for Bieber than re-signing with a team still sorting out its own roster construction.

A healthy platform year elsewhere could reset his value heading into 2028, especially if he can string together a full, uninterrupted season somewhere with a clearer path to regular starts.

For Toronto, letting him walk would remove one more complicated roster puzzle from an offseason that already has plenty of them, from outfield needs to bullpen depth to figuring out the back of the rotation.

Whether Bieber and the Blue Jays ultimately find a way to continue the relationship, or this marks a quiet end to his time in Toronto, is one of the many decisions facing the front office this winter.