The Toronto Blue Jays sit one game back of a wild-card spot, and their next six games could make or break it.
Toronto is still last in the AL East at 61-65. But that record hides a serious run underneath it.
The Blue Jays have won 13 of their last 20 games, including a 5-2 homestand against the Red Sox and Yankees last week.
That stretch pulled them within one game of the Baltimore Orioles for the third wild-card spot.
Behind Baltimore sit the Rangers, half a game back, then Detroit, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Seattle, all within 2.5 games.
It's a crowded field. And crowded fields punish teams that stumble at the wrong moment.
Toronto gets an off-day Monday before diving into a brutal six-game stretch that could define the next month.
Why the schedule gets much easier after this week
First stop is Tropicana Field for three games against Tampa Bay, the AL's best team at 74-49.
That building has been a house of horrors for Toronto. The Blue Jays are 2-8 against the Rays this season, including a sweep there in May.
They own an all-time record of 92-147 at Tropicana Field, a winning percentage of just .385.
From there, it's a weekend in the Bronx against the Yankees, a series Toronto splits about as often as not this season.
They'll play both series without Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who remains on the seven-day concussion IL and isn't expected back this week.
Survive those six games, and the schedule turns friendly. Toronto doesn't face a team over .500 for the final 30 games after that.
Kansas City twice, Seattle, Cleveland, Baltimore, Detroit, and Texas round out the slate, every one of them a fellow wild-card hopeful.
The Blue Jays carry the third-easiest strength of schedule among contenders at .480, behind only Cleveland and Seattle.
Pitching is the reason any of this is possible. Toronto's staff has posted a league-leading 2.87 ERA in August.
The offence hasn't kept pace. The Blue Jays own a .633 OPS this month, third-worst in baseball, with just nine home runs.
For the season, Toronto ranks 29th in runs, 29th in home runs, and dead last in OPS at .678.
That production gap has followed this team all year, and it's asking a four-man rotation, with Trey Yesavage's return still in doubt, to keep carrying the weight alone.
Whether the bats show up before this stretch ends in Tampa and New York is the whole season right now.
Can the Blue Jays make the playoffs with this offence, or does the pitching staff need to carry them all the way?
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