Shane Bieber would love to stay in Toronto, but the Blue Jays have real reasons to look elsewhere first.

Three days after Game 7 of the 2025 World Series, Bieber activated his $16 million player option rather than take a $4 million buyout, a decision that initially looked tied to the team's championship-caliber nucleus.

The real motivation came out later. Bieber was dealing with elbow inflammation that surfaced at spring training, making his opt-in look less altruistic and more practical in hindsight.

This time, the decision belongs to Toronto, not him.

Bieber told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet this week that he's genuinely interested in re-signing, and his desire to stay for at least one more year seems real, even allowing for some gamesmanship.

Why bigger free agent fish matter more right now

Toronto's rotation depth collapsed fast in 2026. Injuries hit Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Bowden Francis, and Jose Berrios in spring training, and Cody Ponce suffered a freak season-ending injury just 2.1 innings into his Blue Jays debut.

Eight or nine starting options thinned to five or six almost immediately, the exact catalyst behind re-signing Max Scherzer on a one-year deal.

Ironically, right as Bieber started turning his season around, a shoulder injury ended it. Had Toronto made the playoffs, he'd been gearing up to return, suggesting he should be fully healthy for 2027.

With Jose Soriano now in the fold from the trade deadline, Toronto's pitching depth sits in a better place, though it could still use reinforcement. Francis and Berrios remain on the shelf, Spencer Arrighetti serves as backfill, and Ricky Tiedemann could help in relief or graduate to the rotation.

Familiarity does matter here. Toronto has already sold Bieber on the organization and its coaching staff once, and that relationship could make a reunion conversation easier than starting fresh with an unfamiliar free agent.

But if Toronto wants to raise its rotation ceiling, the free agent market offers far better fish. Tarik Skubal tops that list, followed by Trevor Rogers, Sonny Gray, Kevin Gausman, and Michael King.

Unless Bieber accepts an incentive-laden pillow contract similar to Scherzer's deal, Toronto should aim higher first.

A one-year, $20 million deal for Bieber wouldn't raise many eyebrows. Multi-year money is where things get complicated given his health history.

Outside of one rough outing on July 28, he looked solid across his final four starts before the shoulder injury hit. But he hasn't completed a full healthy season since 2022.

After using 16 starting pitchers this season, loading up on depth isn't a bad idea, though finding playing time for everyone becomes its own challenge.

Most fans wouldn't object to re-signing Bieber today, given his pedigree and strong September 2025 stretch. But the smarter path is exploring the bigger names first, then circling back to Bieber if he's still available on a show-me deal.